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A former special forces colonel, minister of state Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK must ready itself for war with Russia.

“The threat of conflict is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he stated, in remarks that go beyond previous admonitions by his boss, the defence secretary.

“As a whole society – what is their role if we get caught in an existential crisis, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we rally the nation to support a armed campaign?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of armed forces minister.

Rapid Rise to Prominence

And inevitably for a politician with a history of service in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is a potential future leader – as with, at various points, previous colleagues from a service background before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a genuine possibility of Carns being a candidate if and when the opportunity presents itself.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been involved in politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to three previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough consideration of whether they have the experience and shrewdness to make it to the top.

Military Career and Transition

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and educated in the state system, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “in recognition of gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a shock when he resigned from the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately identified as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a junior veterans minister straight after the most recent general election. He was elevated later that year to the more senior role with a portfolio covering all the military.

Media Presence and Political Attacks

Chiselled and confident, Carns has been an periodic spokesperson for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when putting pressure on rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by ascending the world's highest peak in under five days without acclimating on the mountain, aided by xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader seriously around the time of a deputy contest last autumn, when his supporters began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That failed to get off the ground, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be prime ministerial timber, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a wariness about the meteoric ascent of a star performer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”